EdgeEngine's complete track record across all 7 tiers — published in full, with no cherry-picking, no selective disclosure, and no guaranteed locks.
Each tier operates at a different odds range, requiring a different breakeven win rate. A tier is generating edge when its actual win rate exceeds its breakeven rate — regardless of how the raw win-loss record looks.
Moonshot outliers excluded (odds capped at +2000)
Moonshot outliers excluded (odds capped at +2000)
Raw win rates are meaningless without odds context. At +681 average odds, winning 18% of the time is profitable. At +152, you need to win nearly 40%. This table shows the real metric: how far each tier's win rate is from its odds-adjusted breakeven.
| Tier | Win Rate | Breakeven Rate | Edge | ROI | Sample | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lock of the Day | 48.8% | 37.9% | +10.9% | +41.0% | 125 | Above |
| ELITE Value | 29.4% | 22.4% | +7.0% | +31.2% | 68 | Above |
| The Stretch | 18.0% | 12.8% | +5.2% | +40.8% | 122 | Above |
| Smart Value | 19.0% | 15.4% | +3.6% | +23.4% | 84 | Above |
| The Mixer | 14.7% | 14.7% | ~0% | +0.1% | 116 | Breakeven |
| Bankroll Builder | 22.3% | 26.3% | -4.0% | -15.2% | 121 | Below |
| ELITE Lock | 31.9% | 39.7% | -7.8% | -16.6% | 72 | Below |
These numbers mean nothing without knowing how they're calculated. Here's exactly what's included, what's excluded, and why.
Every Wizard-generated parlay across all tiers. Wins and losses. Settled picks only — active picks are excluded until settled. No retroactive adjustments to pick selection.
User-built custom parlays. Moonshot outliers on Smart Value and ELITE Value tiers (odds capped at +2000 for ROI calculation — noted on each card). Voided legs.
ROI = (Total Return − Total Staked) ÷ Total Staked. Assumes flat $1 unit per pick. Does not compound. Reflects the return on capital deployed, not dollar profit at any specific unit size.
Breakeven Win Rate = 100 ÷ (100 + Average Odds). A tier at +164 average odds breaks even when it wins 37.9% of the time. The edge margin is the difference between actual win rate and breakeven rate.
Parlay Wizard's EdgeEngine has settled 749 picks across 7 tiers with a 25.2% overall win rate (189W-560L). 4 of 7 tiers are beating their respective breakeven rates. The top performing tier, Lock of the Day, has a 48.8% win rate and +41% ROI over 125 settled picks at average odds of +164.
The overall 25.2% blends tiers across very different odds ranges. A 14.7% win rate on a +581 odds tier is actually profitable — those parlays return 6.83x when they hit. Overall win rate is a misleading metric for a multi-tier parlay system. ROI and edge above breakeven are the correct measures of performance.
Bankroll Builder and ELITE Lock are currently running below their breakeven rates. We publish this because hiding negative results would make this page meaningless. EdgeEngine's DML feedback layer is actively recalibrating the parameters for these tiers based on settled results. We will update this page as performance evolves.
749 total picks is meaningful at the portfolio level. Individual tiers range from 68 to 125 settled picks — solid starting samples, though not conclusive. The sports betting research community generally treats 200-300 picks as the threshold where signal clearly separates from variance. We will continue publishing results as the sample grows.
Picks are generated by EdgeEngine — a deterministic mathematical model using Elo power ratings, advanced edge calculation, beam search parlay optimization, and Kelly Criterion sizing. AI is used only to write the plain-English explanation after picks are selected. The math decides. AI explains. Full methodology at parlaywizard.app/blog/how-edgeengine-works.
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